[urq] RE: Multiple Vehicle Insurance

[Michael S. Williams]

At 12:54 PM -0700 3/27/03, Brandon Rogers wrote:
>  >
>>  Say for instance
>>  that the average person gets in a wreck once every year (hopefully not
>>  true!). If this person were to own 365 cars, the agents logic would
>>  state that they will wreck once per day.
>
>wait a minute here.  I'm not as good at stats as I used to be back when I
>was younger (haha), but this seems like flawed logic.  If a person has 365
>cars, and wrecks once per year, and let's assume each car is driven one day,
>then i would think that on average each car statistically will get in a
>wreck every 365 years.  Ergo, own one car, drive every day, you get in a
>wreck with that car every year.  Own two cars, likely to wreck each one
>every other year.  Somebody feel free to correct me.  Personally I find it
>all very frustrating.  I've been driving for almost 15 years now and _never_
>had a claim.  I feel like I'm just getting fiscally raped every month.
>
>Brandon
>'84 ur   -  no wrecks ever
>'98 A4   -  no wrecks ever
>

it seemed that the agent would say taht since the average person
(hypothetically) got into an accident 1/year, which is 1/365, and if
the person owned 365 cars, then the chance of getting into an
accident in any particular car is 1/365...  at least at the beginning
of the policy.  if you were 'required' to get into an accident by the
end of the year, then the chances go up for each day that goes by
without one...  so, in that case, drive the ferrari first, and the
pinto last ;)
--
MswmSwmsW

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