Anecdotal evidence

[Mike Arman]

>Robert Myers <robert at s-cars.org>
>Subject: Re: Question on baby safety

>  Certainly any modern Audi more than qualifies as a "safe" vehicle.
>My wife was cruising on I-81 at 75 mph one midnight several years ago. I
>was riding shotgun (asleep). Our granddaughter was in her car seat in back
>(asleep) and my wife was in the driver's seat (asleep). Two guard rails
>later we were all awake, the car was totaled, and none of us even had so
>much as a scratch or a bruise. This was in a 1988 Audi 90 quattro.



Bob, to prevent any misunderstanding, let me start by saying that I am very 
glad everyone in the car came out of this accident unharmed.

There is a problem with this type of anecdotal evidence, and it is this - 
while it is wonderful to hear "We got out fine", that does NOT "prove" car 
X is "safe".

Unfortunately, the people who didn't get out are not around to say, "No, it 
isn't - I got killed."

Personally, I happen to feel that Audi *is* a safe car, that solid 
construction, excellent design and roadholding, quattro, airbags, etc., DO 
make a car safer, but I hope never to have to test this theory - if I'm 
wrong, I won't be around to say so. Additionally, there are far too many 
variables in any accident to make blanket statements that "car X is safe in 
an accident".

We still don't know a tremendous amount about the real causes and dynamics 
of auto accidents. State of Florida used to holler about how mandatory auto 
inspections were necessary for safety - until they did a study, and found 
that of the top 50 causes of accidents, items that would have failed 
inspection were number 48 - so they realized that the state mandated 
inspections were not cost effective, and dropped them. The accident rate 
has NOT risen because of this - and they were dropped over ten years ago.

While federally mandated crash testing has plenty of problems, it is FAR 
better than nothing, and far more reliable than alternate methodology based 
on an imperfect sample - the survivors.

Best Regards,
Mike Arman