[s-cars] NAC - Another Toyota story

Thu Mar 4 01:37:48 PST 2010

I'm with you Calvin.  I agree with the writer on the idiocy of politicians
grandstanding with congressional hearings.  But having been a programmer for
many years in a previous life, the idea that a software bug is impossible
(which is what they have been claiming) is beyond laughable. Hey
drive-by-wire is all well and good in an Airbus or a spacecraft where you
can afford multiple failsafes and redundant systems, but in a car without
all those things, well I guess it works but don't tell me it can't ever go
wrong, even if it's 1 in 2.5 million times.

But in regard to that 34 numbah, well lez hava lookit it shall we?
34 is only the _DEATHS_ REPORTED TO NHTSA _AND_ OFFICIALLY "ATTRIBUTED TO"
number. By any logic it would massively underestimate incidence rate.
In fact 2,262 total incidents have been reported in various places since
1999 according to these folks: http://www.safetyresearch.net
OK even if that's wildly inflated by idiots who pushed the wrong pedal or
put giant floor mats made of solid lead on top of the gas pedal, it still
leaves a big number. I dunno what the problem is but seems like there's a
problem.

To their "floor mat" solution, well most of the anecdotes I've heard/read
have been anything BUT a situation where the driver would have put the
accelerator all the way to the floor and then had it caught under a
floormat. For example an older guy who was backing out of his driveway into
a residential street and suddenly ended up against a tree in his neighbors
yard. Who floors it when in reverse? (OK I do when I want to do reverse
donuts in a snowy parking lot, bad example) This guy from the look of him
probably never floored a car in his life.  In general it doesn't smell right
to me.

And it IS wicked ironic that I as an Audi driver am suggesting it's NOT all
because driver error.  When it was Audis those drivers were WICKED
REETAHHHDED (must... not... make... Palin joke...) but Toyotas? Well then it
must be a crappy japanese software issue!
And by the way, guess what? It's still happening with "Fixed" cars:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/business/04toyota.html
And by the way... guess what? Priuses (Priiii?) are going on recall for
faulty brakes.
What's the fix? Software upgrade. Hmmmm I thought Toyotas never HAD software
problems!?

>
> Actually, those probabilities are much more consistent, as is
> the behavior if you read a lot of the posts people have made
> about their problems, with a software bug that requires just
> the right set of timing and circumstances to rear its ugly
> head.  In one of the FPGAs on one of the spacecraft I worked
> on a few years ago we had a clock boundary crossing problem
> that occured on average once every 800,000 commands, so 1 in
> 2.5 million times - not too far off.  In addition, if you
> take into account all of the failures with the accelerator
> "system" on the Toyotas, like a lot of complaints that the
> car does not accelerate when the accelerator pedal is
> depressed from time to time, it increases the odds quite a
> bit.  The possibility it is a sticking accelerator or floor
> mats - no way in hell, I agree with the writer on this one,
> way too many miles on too many mechanical assemblies with too
> few variables of input.  In addition, a lot of the reports
> are of the car accelerating from a position of no pedal
> depression - which is obviously not a sticking pedal.
> --Calvin
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: s-car-list-bounces at audifans.com
> [mailto:s-car-list-bounces at audifans.com]On Behalf Of djdawson2 at aol.com
> Sent: Wednesday, March 03, 2010 8:58 AM
> To: s-car-list at www.audifans.com; urq at audifans.com
> Subject: [s-cars] NAC - Another Toyota story
>
>
>
>
> Interesting...
>
>
>
> The Toyota recall story you haven't heard Wednesday, February 24, 2010
>
>
> By Dr. David Eifrig in Retirement Millionaire:
>
> In case you haven't heard, Toyota is in trouble with the
> Feds. But not because of anything it did or didn't do.
>
> The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is
> demanding the president of the company sit under its klieg
> lights and explain himself.
> Committee leaders are going to bully him with the threat of
> legal action until he shows up.
>
> Politicians know they can get a lot of free press by stoking
> the popular perception that Toyota somehow knew the gas
> pedals were "dangerous," but installed them anyway, violating
> U.S. laws and regulations.
>
> This is utter nonsense, though you can be sure the U.S.
> automakers are doing everything to encourage this hysteria.
>
> When I heard the news about the gas pedals getting stuck and
> causing fatal crashes, I had to think about the probability
> these accidents resulted from the use of an ill-designed component.
>
> Consider the numbers: 34 people died in accidents blamed on
> the pedals.
> That's a pretty small number, but maybe enough to raise some
> concerns...
> until you realize that's the total number of fatalities since 2000.
>
> Toyota has recalled more than 8.5 million vehicles in the
> U.S. Assume the owners drive those vehicles 10,000 miles a
> year (12,000 is probably more accurate, but 10,000 is a
> conservative estimate... and a factor of 10 makes the math
> simpler). That means Toyotas are logging more than 85 billion
> miles a year in the U.S. - 850 billion miles during the last 10 years.
>
> So divide 34 deaths into 850 billion miles, and the odds of a
> Toyota owner having one of these accidents is one in 2.5
> million... That's a random event.
>
> If Toyota were using faulty equipment, we would have seen
> thousands more accidents and deaths.
>
> You're more likely to get killed by lightning: 60 people died
> from lightning in the U.S. just last year. Heck, I'm more
> likely to get a hole-in-one on the golf course. The odds of
> that are only 5,000 to 1.
>
> But statistics aside, just apply a little common sense to the
> question. The allegedly defective accelerator part is made in
> Canada by Indiana-based CTS Corp. Many makes and models use
> this same part. For example, the Pontiac Vibe uses it. Ford
> sells a van in China with the component.
>
> Why aren't we hearing about those cars? None of the drivers
> with American cars that use identical parts ever experienced
> a stuck accelerator? It just makes no sense.
>
>
>
>
>
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