[s-cars] NAC - Another Toyota story

[Robert Myers]

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Back when I was programming some rather specialized software I firmly 
believed the old adage (well, old as far as software is concerned) 
"There is ALWAYS one more bug."

Bob

At 04:37 AM 3/4/2010, JC wrote:
>*This message was transferred with a trial version of CommuniGate(r) Pro*
>I'm with you Calvin.  I agree with the writer on the idiocy of politicians
>grandstanding with congressional hearings.  But having been a programmer for
>many years in a previous life, the idea that a software bug is impossible
>(which is what they have been claiming) is beyond laughable. Hey
>drive-by-wire is all well and good in an Airbus or a spacecraft where you
>can afford multiple failsafes and redundant systems, but in a car without
>all those things, well I guess it works but don't tell me it can't ever go
>wrong, even if it's 1 in 2.5 million times.
>
>But in regard to that 34 numbah, well lez hava lookit it shall we?
>34 is only the _DEATHS_ REPORTED TO NHTSA _AND_ OFFICIALLY "ATTRIBUTED TO"
>number. By any logic it would massively underestimate incidence rate.
>In fact 2,2"There is ALWAYS one more bug."\62 total incidents have 
>been reported in various places since
>1999 according to these folks: http://www.safetyresearch.net
>OK even if that's wildly inflated by idiots who pushed the wrong pedal or
>put giant floor mats made of solid lead on top of the gas pedal, it still
>leaves a big number. I dunno what the problem is but seems like there's a
>problem.
>
>To their "floor mat" solution, well most of the anecdotes I've heard/read
>have been anything BUT a situation where the driver would have put the
>accelerator all the way to the floor and then had it caught under a
>floormat. For example an older guy who was backing out of his driveway into
>a residential street and suddenly ended up against a tree in his neighbors
>yard. Who floors it when in reverse? (OK I do when I want to do reverse
>donuts in a snowy parking lot, bad example) This guy from the look of him
>probably never floored a car in his life.  In general it doesn't smell right
>to me.
>
>And it IS wicked ironic that I as an Audi driver am suggesting it's NOT all
>because driver error.  When it was Audis those drivers were WICKED
>REETAHHHDED (must... not... make... Palin joke...) but Toyotas? Well then it
>must be a crappy japanese software issue!
>And by the way, guess what? It's still happening with "Fixed" cars:
>http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/business/04toyota.html
>And by the way... guess what? Priuses (Priiii?) are going on recall for
>faulty brakes.
>What's the fix? Software upgrade. Hmmmm I thought Toyotas never HAD software
>problems!?
>
> >
> > Actually, those probabilities are much more consistent, as is
> > the behavior if you read a lot of the posts people have made
> > about their problems, with a software bug that requires just
> > the right set of timing and circumstances to rear its ugly
> > head.  In one of the FPGAs on one of the spacecraft I worked
> > on a few years ago we had a clock boundary crossing problem
> > that occured on average once every 800,000 commands, so 1 in
> > 2.5 million times - not too far off.  In addition, if you
> > take into account all of the failures with the accelerator
> > "system" on the Toyotas, like a lot of complaints that the
> > car does not accelerate when the accelerator pedal is
> > depressed from time to time, it increases the odds quite a
> > bit.  The possibility it is a sticking accelerator or floor
> > mats - no way in hell, I agree with the writer on this one,
> > way too many miles on too many mechanical assemblies with too
> > few variables of input.  In addition, a lot of the reports
> > are of the car accelerating from a position of no pedal
> > depression - which is obviously not a sticking pedal.
> > --Calvin
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: s-car-list-bounces at audifans.com
> > [mailto:s-car-list-bounces at audifans.com]On Behalf Of djdawson2 at aol.com
> > Sent: Wednesday, March 03, 2010 8:58 AM
> > To: s-car-list at www.audifans.com; urq at audifans.com
> > Subject: [s-cars] NAC - Another Toyota story
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Interesting...
> >
> >
> >
> > The Toyota recall story you haven't heard Wednesday, February 24, 2010
> >
> >
> > By Dr. David Eifrig in Retirement Millionaire:
> >
> > In case you haven't heard, Toyota is in trouble with the
> > Feds. But not because of anything it did or didn't do.
> >
> > The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is
> > demanding the president of the company sit under its klieg
> > lights and explain himself.
> > Committee leaders are going to bully him with the threat of
> > legal action until he shows up.
> >
> > Politicians know they can get a lot of free press by stoking
> > the popular perception that Toyota somehow knew the gas
> > pedals were "dangerous," but installed them anyway, violating
> > U.S. laws and regulations.
> >
> > This is utter nonsense, though you can be sure the U.S.
> > automakers are doing everything to encourage this hysteria.
> >
> > When I heard the news about the gas pedals getting stuck and
> > causing fatal crashes, I had to think about the probability
> > these accidents resulted from the use of an ill-designed component.
> >
> > Consider the numbers: 34 people died in accidents blamed on
> > the pedals.
> > That's a pretty small number, but maybe enough to raise some
> > concerns...
> > until you realize that's the total number of fatalities since 2000.
> >
> > Toyota has recalled more than 8.5 million vehicles in the
> > U.S. Assume the owners drive those vehicles 10,000 miles a
> > year (12,000 is probably more accurate, but 10,000 is a
> > conservative estimate... and a factor of 10 makes the math
> > simpler). That means Toyotas are logging more than 85 billion
> > miles a year in the U.S. - 850 billion miles during the last 10 years.
> >
> > So divide 34 deaths into 850 billion miles, and the odds of a
> > Toyota owner having one of these accidents is one in 2.5
> > million... That's a random event.
> >
> > If Toyota were using faulty equipment, we would have seen
> > thousands more accidents and deaths.
> >
> > You're more likely to get killed by lightning: 60 people died
> > from lightning in the U.S. just last year. Heck, I'm more
> > likely to get a hole-in-one on the golf course. The odds of
> > that are only 5,000 to 1.
> >
> > But statistics aside, just apply a little common sense to the
> > question. The allegedly defective accelerator part is made in
> > Canada by Indiana-based CTS Corp. Many makes and models use
> > this same part. For example, the Pontiac Vibe uses it. Ford
> > sells a van in China with the component.
> >
> > Why aren't we hearing about those cars? None of the drivers
> > with American cars that use identical parts ever experienced
> > a stuck accelerator? It just makes no sense.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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