[urq] What's it worth?--LONG

[W. Bremer]

I posted a variation of this to the list earlier this year.  It may be of
interest again.  (Maybe I should put this on the wiki-wiki site.)


It appears that selling price generally varies with chassis mileage (offset,
perhaps, by a more recent motor replacement, or other major maintenance
work), so that a pristine, unmodified urq with under 50K miles might sell in
the middle teens, while an average car with 50K miles might be in the low
teens.  Once the mileage gets into the mid 70K range, the price drops to
$7.5-$10K, and when you get into over 100K mileage, the price runs from
5K-$7.5 K, with the higher end reached by cars with good documentation about
repairs.  (We are not considering basket cases worth $1,500 for parts, or
serious rally conversions.)

The few mint cars with around 15-20K original documented miles might go for
$20K or so, and the one rather unique urq in the US--Audi's 1985 New York
Auto Show show car (i.e., a car with a "pedigree")--would likely command
more than that--and it has.  As the market recovers, and folks can peel off
a few shares of Procter & Gamble to buy a car of their dreams, urq prices
will also probably rise.  Right now, few regular folks can afford a "toy"
car, so that depresses the market for all of us, but of course there are
always exceptions, such as when a buyer wants one specific car (year, color,
etc.) and the price is not the key obstacle--or if a seller is desperate to
sell to buy a house or deal with a divorce.

But the truth is that your urq will be worth what some buyer who wants your
car with your mods will pay for it when you want to sell it.

 Very few urquattros are still OEM, and generally a collector prefers an
"original" pristine car and deal with the well-known problems of the
earlier, pre-1983.5 urqs or the relatively fewer problems of the 1983.5 and
later urqs.  And we in the US are only two years or so away from being able
to import 1980 European urqs directly (after 25 years)--and the Canadians
already can (15 years), so that the collector scarcity issue may also go
away.

There are so few Urquattros around in North America and/or for sale, and
there are so many different modifications (some done well, and some done
poorly) that there is no definitive market value or price for the cars, IMO.
I have a personal bias that well-maintained unmodified urqs will have the
best investment value, and I have gone the OEM route for my '82 Euro
WR-motored urq with 45K miles (one of four known '82 Euro models in the US)
that has classic car insurance policy (now insured for "stated value"--not
the "trick language" of "actual cash value") by the insurance company of
$20,000, but technically not exactly replaceable even at that price) and
which is driven maybe 1,000 miles each summer (in Maine).

 I fear that cars modified/restored by their owners (unless the owners have
it done at well-established professional restoration shops and save all the
receipts) will not command the big bucks.  Recently there have been several
urqs for sale on eBay, Cars.com and privately.  The eBay car (56K miles), a
seemingly nice '83 with some mods, did not appear to sell.  It had a start
price of $7,500 with an unknown reserve; the same car was also on Cars.com
and had an asking price of $8,900 (as I recall) and hadn't sold at that
price (last I knew); an '83 on Cars.com, with an asking price of $7,500; and
an '85 with a high-output custom Bruno Kreibich-built MC-1 motor conversion
(with 99K chassis miles) sold privately for under $9,000.  But as we all
know, buying even a recent car on eBay can be problematic, and buying a urq
(where the car's history is rarely known) on eBay can be a disaster (unless
the car has been thoroughy inspected by a professional knowledgeable in
urqs, or if the seller and the car are known to members of this list).

Generally, mass-produced cars without an explicit successful racing heritage
rarely increase in value (and none of our "regular" urquattros have an
explicit and car-specific professional racing or collector cult pedigree).
Today, one can buy a several-year old A4  with all the modern bells and
whistles (performance and safety) for under $20K.  Who but a dedicated urq
enthusiast would pay that for a 20-year old urq?

IMO, all an owner can do is enjoy the car, maintain it well, and sell it for
whatever the market is willing to pay when that time comes.

Part of the rational behind the UPG urquattro-dedicated events is to promote
the cars and make other folks think they'd like to have one, thereby
hopefully driving demand and prices up. With only 800 cars imported, and
probably fewer than 400 still running in North America, the urquattros are
below the radar scope for most buyers.  Take a look at what is selling at
the Barrett-Jackson and other auctions: no urquattros, and the "regular" old
cars from the '70's are usually selling in the low- to mid teens.  I suspect
that owners (or their kids) who have pristine urqs in 2030-5 (i.e., 50 year
old cars) will get a good price.  When I first insured my urq under a
classic policy, I documented $15,000 in value (I paid for a professional
appraisal), and the insurer has raised the value automatically at each
renewal).  I paid around $10K (in 1992, with 29K miles), which has only
doubled in value (at best) in 11 years.  That's a gross return of about 6.5%
a year, and, taking insurance and other maintenance costs into
consideration, the rate of return is probably around 5% or less.  Had I
invested the money in a good stock in 1992, I'd be better off (from a purely
investment perspective), even with the recent market "dip."  I would not,
however, have had the opportunity to do multiple ACNA driver's schools at
New Hampshire International, Lime Rock Park, Watkins Glen, Mid-Ohio, and
Road America, or gotten a ride in one in the parade lap at Laguna Seca at
the 1999 Monterey Historics, partricipating in the UPC event this past April
in Marin county, California, or the UPG event in Connecticut in May--to say
nothing about being part of a truly group of fellow urq enthusiasts.  So,
even if I sell the car at a loss or a minimal investment return, I would not
have traded the "urq experience" for quite a few thousand dollars.

A lot of owner mods do not, IMO, materially increase the car's value or
worth, and I fear that mods that affect the fuel system or the electrical
system probably detract from the car's collector value because a buyer can
never be sure that the prior owner did the job correctly.  As reported to
the Registry, a lot of fuel system mods have been reversed by a subsequent
owner.  I agree that "right way" to do the wiring upgrade in an urq is to,
as Huw suggests, replace the wiring harnesses in total, and not get involved
with a bunch of splices that could easily fail themselves, and about which a
new owner or shop would not have a clue how to find and repair.  No doubt
keeping a log of the modifications (and an electric diagram for electrical
system mods) will help increase the selling price of a modified urq.

The best and only reason for owning a urq: enjoy it for yourself, keep good
documentation of the mods you do, and hope that you can convince a future
buyer that these mods make the car more reliable and hence more valuable.
You "may" recoup a portion of your original investment, but if you want real
asset accumulation in the car game, you (and all the rest of us) needed to
have found a Mille Miglia- or Targa Floria-winning Ferrari in a barn in
Italy and have had $100,000 lying around to do the complete and perfect
restoration.

Incidentally, the Registry has been helpful, in terms of increasing the
insurance settlement, to some owners whose cars were totaled in accidents.
In such circumstances, the condition of the car prior to the accident can be
evaluated.  If a car is destroyed by fire or theft, this is not possible, so
it is essential to create an album of photographs (multiple exterior and
interior shots, engine compartment and trunk-updated annually, preferably
with a date stamp on the photographs), purchase records, history, receipts
for repairs and upgrades, etc., and offer in writing to provide these to
your insurance company or independent agent each year.  This not only
attests to the condition of the car but also sets the stage for a favorable
settlement in the event of a loss.  It also lets them know that you are
"serious."

Remember, unless you have "agreed-value" collector car insurance (with the
use and mileage constraints accompanying those policies), you have an
"actual cash value" valuation policy (all regular car policies).  In this
instance, the settlement value of the car is the "actual cash value" as
determined by the insurer's represenative, by an independent appraiser if
you and the insurer disagree as to partial or total loss value (usually a
requirement of your policy in the event of a disagreement regarding loss
value), or by your attorney's ability to negotiate with the insurer
representing the other (presumably at-fault party).  This is the reason for
having those photographs and records and offering them to your insurer each
year.

And at the risk of being very cynical, if you suffer injury as a result of
an accident in which you are not at fault, don't sign the medical release
until you have settled on the valuation of the car, and get a lawyer.  FWIW,
insurance adjusters ALWAYS "low-ball" the first settlement offer--it's the
way they play the game--and if you counter-propose with an overstated value,
eventually you can get to an acceptable settlement, which should the equal
to the cost of replacing the car with one in the same condition as yours at
the time of the loss (or, in other words, current actual cash or "market"
value).
Bill