RE: [85] Ur-Q collectability

[quattro <quattro@acacianet.com>]

Let's examine the supply/demand equation. The automobile has been unavailable in the US for 13 years now. Interest in the 85 model should now be pretty much at the all-time low. Prices should be at or near the bottom. Most everyone that wants one, has one, with the exception of a few here on this list that are looking for one. 

Those that have them fall into several groups, 1) true 85 ur-q nutz that will never sell their examples at any price (me). 2) general ur-q nutz that appreciate the marque and year but have no emotional attachment to a particular example, might be willing to sell/trade for another example with lower miles/better condition/known history/highly desirable color/ etc. 3) general car nutz, might be willing to sell/trade for any other car of particular interest at the time. 4) general car nutz daily-driver example, might be willing to sell/trade when repairs get too expensive or example get too unreliable, often this type of example gets driven into the ground and ultimately is removed from the supply due to parting-out or a total, etc. 5) general daily-driver example, you will not see too many of these today because one would really need to be in one of the above categories to have survived with an ur-q for 13 years enough already plea$e!

So, what's happening with the supply? The cars are aging, being junked/totalled and the supply of good, excellent and original examples is being steadily depleted over time. This will continue till all of the daily-drivers are no more and only the wrecks/parts cars, race car, garage-queen and museum pieces remain. We should approach this within the next 5-10 years in the US as the cost of maintaining daily-driver ur-q continues to increase.

And of demand? This is tough to speculate about. Perhaps there will be no increase in demand. On the other hand there are a couple of factors that could increase demand. 1) Pro Rally interest could take off in the US, you never know. There could be more television and general media coverage in the US. Interest in motorsports in the US in general is at an all-time high and is increasing. Look at the success of NASCAR as a recent datapoint. Any increase in awareness and interest in Pro Rally will result in an increased level of interest in Pro Rally history and related historic memoriabilia and the historic cars of the time. Certainly interest in the Mt. Washington Hillclimb is at an all-time high and is increasing. Quattros hold a number of wins and records and are historically significant with respect to the event. Same for Pikes Peak. 2) Audi and quattros in general could benefit from future marketplace penetration and awareness in the US and from future high-performance models from Audi, 3) future motorsports successes with Audis and quattros could also fuel a renewed interest in historic and high-performance Audis of the past. 4) Potential future Audi 'yuppie factor' could add interest to the models of the past as well.

So, there you have it, IMFO. The supply is incredibly thin already (started out with only 73) and constantly diminishing. Demand/interest is at an approximate all-time low resulting in relatively low prices at the moment. Future demand/interest is more likely to increase versus decrease over time. This can only lead to one outcome - prices will increase over time as a function of the ever diminishing supply and (hopefully) ever increasing interest and demand.

While we can only guess and speculate about future demand, interest and prices, we can look in some detail at the supply. What is the supply? I have seen 2x 85 ur-q for sale over the past year or two. That one datapoint implies supply is already rather thin. 

How many are left of the 73 examples? 
Who on the list has a US-spec 85 or knows of one? 
What condition is it in?  [wreck/parts/fair/poor/good/excellent/original]
Is it for sale? 
At any price?

My guess is that it would not take much increased interest for demand to overwhelm supply and cause an increase in prices asked or in prices of deals closed.

Humbly submitted,

-glen