Re: synth vs. the environment (Audi content only insofar as it relates to Audi oil changes!)

[Richard Beels <beels@technologist.com>]

>> ozone is a greenhouse gas so maybe it's a good thing we're killing it off?
>No it isn't.
>From NASA's website:  "Depending on where ozone resides, it can protect or
harm life on Earth. High in the atmosphere - about 15 miles (24 kilometers)
up - in the stratosphere, ozone acts as a shield to protect Earth's surface
from the sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation. Without this shield, we would
be more susceptible to skin cancer, cataracts, and impaired immune systems.
Closer to Earth in the air we breathe - Troposphere -, ozone is a harmful
pollutant that causes damage to lung tissue and plants. It is also
considered to be a greenhouse gas, which may contribute to global warming."

>> Gee, I though that proven reserves were actually rising.
>What we know is there may be... I find it hard to imagine that the
>*actual* amount could be rising.
Umm, think about it.  There's still plants and microbes getting squished
under the crust somewhere.  It's not like oil was getting made for the last
200 million years and it's just stopped in the last couple decades (think
about this too: the earth is still making diamonds).  Besides, we're better
at extracting oil than in the past.  Fields that were 'depleted' are being
pumped again.  We can drill deeper (think how large the earth is: about
8000 miles in diameter (depends where you measure, we're not really round))
than we used to.  The first real oil well struck pay dirt at 70 feet.  The
Saudi fields struck oil at a couple-few thousand feet.  Just a short while
ago, we could only drill a mile or so deep.  Now, most oil wells are
between 3,000 - 16,500 feet deep but wells as deep as four or five miles
are sometimes drilled.  Think how much oil is sitting there, just out of
reach now that will be in reach in the next decade.  Look at deep water
drilling too: Just a few years ago, waters of more than 1,000 feet deep
were beyond reach. Now, we can drill through a over mile of water to get to
oil.  And it's cheaper to get to that oil than it was to get to the oil
1000 feet deep last decade.  And, we can drill sideways now too.  It's that
damn paradigm shift thing happening (again).

When I got my undergrad degree in Econ, one of the things that struck me
the most was how everyone thinks with a "zero sum" mentality.  So much so
that I focused on that in my graduate studies.  There is practically
nothing in this world that is zero sum.  And if it is zero sum, the
quantity involved is so great that it really doesn't matter anyway.  Finite
is an unwieldy term to throw about when talking about natural resources.

The other main trend was that people consistently under-rate technological
progress - both in the short term and in the long term.  PCs are hardly the
only industry that's advancing leaps and bounds - and remember, as fast as
it's growing, it's forcing and enabling other industries and technologies
along with it.  Heady times, these....

>I will go read this book to do fairness to this almost totally off topic
>debate.  His statement above, however, seems more to reflect the
>economic factors involved in energy resource mining and utilisation than
>the physical reality of what is there underground.  Forgive me, but I
>just don't understand how the planets accumulated hydrocarbon energy
>supply could be anything but finite.  Remember, it's just a few (100)
>million years of sunlight that was stored long ago by plants.

Please do, it's an excellent read.  To do it justice, you need to get the
1980 book and read it.  Highlight everything that strikes you as odd,
unbelievable and that you disagree with.  Then pick up the 1996 copy (free
from the web now) and read how right he was.  Another excellent author to
read is Paul Zane Pilzer.  "Unlimited Wealth" and "God Wants You To Be
Rich" should be in everyone's personal library. I used to think resources
were limited and all that: the _theorys_ are so seemingly logical and
comfortable to believe.  But virtually all of them don't hack it empirically.

But yes, it is way off topic and way too long. So let's end it with your
reply (giving you the last word<g>).



Cheers,
	Richard
	88 90Q - <insert pithy witticism here>
	88 Golf GTi - PRO Rally