isham research
Nothing escaped Phil Payne's attention - certainly not the missing gearbox nuts - Practical Classics, June 2011
Five days later (cheque cleared) he was back at the PC workshop to spend a day with one-man independent quattro manual and all-round genius Phil Payne, checking over the car inch by inch. Sorry, centimetre by centimetre. This was the first time anyone associated with the Quattro Owners Club had seen the car in the flesh. Phil (who became an expert on quattros in the Nineties after buying an ur and discovering that few people in Britain knew how to fix one) was meticulous. Nothing escaped his attention, certainly not the two missing transmission nuts, nor the fact that the car had been fitted with a Dialynx Performance Ltd manifold, nor the exhaust blow at the wastegate. He got the voice synthesiser working again, too, but he couldn't solve the one remaining bug: you'll recall we had to buy a new speedometer sensor unit as the original got itself lost (it turned up, broken in a pool of lubricant under a certain Jensen chassis). The upgrading unit slotted in as it should, but refused to work for us. And after much multimetering Phil - who has faced everything from Kolaschnikov [sic] bullets in Biafra to Jeremy Clarkson demanding a quattro with its tail hanging out - was still scratching his head. Could the replacement unit be faulty? Ian and Phil will let us know.
Google Maps glitch tags shop with rival phone numbers - The Register, 17 September 2009
Six days earlier, Phil Payne - who handles website and search engine duties for the Hotel 53 in York, United Kingdom - saw the hotel's web traffic drop from about 600 hits a day to about 30. And he soon traced the problem back to Google Maps. But in this case, the business wasn't merged with a competitor. It was merged with a solicitor.
"We've lost about 40 per cent of our total web business," Payne tells The Reg. "It makes the difference between profit and loss." When he complained about the issue in the support forums, a Google employee popped up to say that the company would fix the problem, but that this would take about two weeks. That was on September 9.
When we contacted Google about the ongoing issue, a company spokeswoman referred us to that April blog post and said: "We are aware of this issue and have been continuing to refine our algorithms to ensure that we are properly clustering data when necessary."
Start-up throws Liberty, Integrity and HP at IBM's lawyers - The Register, 16 February 2007
While PSI talks a good, heart-warming story, the company's claims sound hollow to one analyst, especially with PSI going after the lower-end 400 MIPS and below market.
"As I've said on many occasions, if you give a small company a big machine for free, the software charges will bankrupt it," said Phil Payne of Isham Research. " You can now get medium-sized zArchitecture-capable machines - second-hand z800s - for $30,000 or so. The reason they're so cheap is that the software is so expensive."
Beyond that, "PSI isn't manufacturing systems. They're buying not especially cheap HP Superdomes and at the quantity they'll be buying, they'll not getting much discount.
"And the market is, over time, rejecting both IBM's mainframe architecture and Itanium."
Mainframe clones ready for takeoff - Computer Weekly, 18 January 2007
Phil Payne, principal at mainframe analyst Isham Research, said that PSI would have to license IBM's technology to produce the servers, which would send the prices of its machines rocketing. He also said legal documents showed that PSI did not currently have the transferrable IBM software licences needed for it legally to sell servers based on IBM's z/OS and other technology.
Mainframe Emulation Specialist Target of IBM Lawsuit - Enterprise Systems Journal, 12 December 2006
PSI also targets a sub-100 MIPS space which it says is ill-served by IBM's existing mainframe systems. In addition, and thanks largely to the availability of Intel Corp.'s dual-core Itanium2 chips, PSI now says it can address about "90 percent" of mainframe computing requirements. The company contends that it isn't feeding off IBM in this space, either. As veteran mainframe watcher Phil Payne, a principal with UK consultancy Isham Research, has noted in his own writings, Big Blue has actively marketed mainframe hardware to the sub-100 MIPS market for some time now, explicitly targeting the midrange market with its z890 and new z9 Business Class (BC) mainframe systems.
There are other complications. For example, Payne writes, even though Fundamental Software did partner with vendors which resold Dell and Compaq systems, it also developed its own channel adapters, along with other proprietary complements for FLEX-ES. The implication, Payne notes, is that stock Itanium2 systems could run PSI's emulation software, too. One upshot of this is, as Payne puts it, is that "[m]ainframe emulation shipped on a DVD."
IBM pushes mainframe goodness downstream - The Register, 19 April 2006
IBM looks set to release a revitalized, lower-end mainframe in the coming weeks, according to a detailed analyst report.
Phil Payne at Isham Research predicts that IBM will pump out - or at least announce - a successor to the z890 by the end of the month. The new z9 Business Computer should have much of the technology found in IBM's current top-of-the-line z9 109 mainframe. This is a cascading technology thang, Payne tells us.
Analyst firm Isham Research has lately coined the term kMIPS (kilo-million instructions per second) to measure the processor speeds in IBM's largest servers.
Computer Weekly - 22 November 2005
But Platform Solutions, founded in 1999 by a group of former PSI Amdahl mainframe engineers, has developed an alternative approach that could offer users up to eight times the performance of FlexES, according to mainframe analyst Phil Payne of Isham Research.
..
"Platform Solutions can provide an equivalent to the IBM z890 range and is potentially eight times as powerful as FlexES," said Payne. This means it could be used to run modern workloads, rather than being restricted to the 18mips limit of the FlexES emulator.
FLEX-ES has no such 18 MIPS limitation today, and much larger systems are already in operation. Fundamental Software's technology can currently reach ca. 1600 MIPS fairly comfortably. Subject, of course, to licensing.
Platform Solutions could potentially be used to run 64-bit workloads too. "A lot of IBM middleware like DB2 v8 only runs in 64-bit mode [on the mainframe]," said Payne. Previously, if a software provider had developed an application to make use of the features in DB2 v8, users would have been unable to emulate the 64-bit environment required.
Payne expects IBM to offer its own emulator by mid-2006.
IT Jungle - 25 October 2005
(Isham Research) At the low end of the IBM mainframe business, customers are getting pushed aside with a W.C. Fields-like "Go away, kid, ya bother me" attitude from Big Blue. Hewlett Packard might have some success using a friendlier tone of voice with these companies. H-P may also have some help from a company called Platform Solutions.
Computer Weekly - 2 August 2005
Isham Research analyst Phil Payne, who has been investigating the pricing, has found some problems relating to IBM's Large Scale Performance Reference (LSPR) that could affect the way the box is deployed. "It is biased 70% towards batch [workloads] and 30% towards online," he said. LSPR is a series of benchmarks for different mainframe workloads: batch long jobs, batch short jobs, Java batch job, Websphere database, transaction processing and low I/O. IBM generally provides a weight for each workload which users can then take to see how much running the software will cost in their own IT environments. Running more online than batch workloads could prove costlier, Payne warned, because the licensing is indicated by how the LSPR is weighted.Another factor affecting users is how much IBM plans to discount software on the z9. Payne said it can take days for users to determine how their own workloads reflect LSPR. Without the licensing costs, it makes it difficult to plan budgets, Payne said. He urged anyone assessing the z9 to assume the upper licensing limit will be the same as the z990.
Computer Weeekly - 26 July 2005
But, as businesses prepared to evaluate IBM's latest high-end offering, Computer Weekly has learned of concerns about how mainframe software will be licensed. According to Isham Research analyst Phil Payne, the software workload calculation for the new box has been biased towards batch processing work. This could make it more expensive for running real-time transaction processing applications such as IBM's WebSphere or Linux applications.
"Users with heavy use of online loads couldbe disappointed," he said.
BBC Radio Five Live - 5 May 2005
Caution - a 14MB .WAV file digitised from the BBC's streaming audio. This interview was given with about eight minutes' warning on the subject of IBM's announcement of 13,000 redundancies world wide and a major reorganisation of its European operations.
Phil Payne, principal at Isham Research, said mainframes have steadily been moving towards real-time data processing over a number of years.
"Mainframes are the only way to do large-scale real-time data processing. People are very fond of saying Google can do everything with 10,000 PCs, but they have also got 10,000 different versions of their database. Centralised systems are essential," he said.
"Customers are increasingly familiar with instant gratification, and are using mobile devices to access mainframe data and, in many ways, bypassing the desktop PC. Within five years, every banking customer will have a banking terminal in their pocket, drawing on the mainframe."
I still remember when -- about 1994, if I recall correctly -- industry analyst Phil Payne observed on Will Zachmann's legendary Canopus Forum on CompuServe that Microsoft was invariably doing exactly what it accused the competition of doing.
"There are two major issues with "pay for what you use". The first is that you cannot -- in an online world -- always predict what you are going to use. It's not under your control. If the advertising or PR department scores a major coup you could wind up with your systems being thrashed mercilessly. It may not even be by something that your organization does -- it could be a competitor or a reviewing journal. The major disconnect here is the corporate budgeting process that insists on predictable costs. The second issue is that the companies that have the technology in place still don't have the Terms and Conditions to make it viable. For instance, behind all IBM Corp.'s "Capacity Upgrade and Downgrade on Demand" hype is buried the fact that any software under International Program License Agreement Terms and Conditions will still be charged for a minimum of a month at the temporary high level. Only Variable Workload Level Charges licensed software is charged on a per-day basis, so the whole scheme isn't really practical. The ISVs, of course, have even less reason to play ball and always insist on their pound of flesh."
Although this is a recent quote, the situation has changed somewhat with a recent IBM announcement linking much IPLA software to its environment.
Analyst Phil Payne, of Isham Research, has put together an informative technical backgrounder on IBM's forthcoming monster mainframe, which he refers to by its previous codename - Galileo. Payne expects Galileo to be announced in mid-May and forecasts the market for Galileo to be initially "quite limited" and restricted to IBM's largest multinational customers. He told us the Galileo will add few new features and will be attractive only in the long-term as it becomes IBM's standard system and the increase in I/O bandwidth it offers becomes a greater requirement. With Parallel Sysplex support now mature, users can achieve higher availability and greater flexibility by spreading resources across multiple systems. Because of this, combining multiple mainframe systems is, for now, a better approach for mainframe customers faced with increasing computing workloads, Payne says According to Isham Research estimates, between 1,800 - 2,000 z900 mainframes have been sold since the product's launch in December 2000.
"IBM's mainframe competition today is vastly more dangerous than Amdahl or Hitachi ever were," Payne said. "If the old-style PCMs won a deal, IBM still received the same software revenues and could easily displace the PCM system in its turn...Today, a mainframe customer lost to Sun or Hewlett-Packard today is lost forever."
Under the reign of Louis Gerstner, Big Blue had concentrated on the firm's largest accounts at the expense of small to medium enterprises (SMEs), but this policy has changed since Sam Palmisano was appointed chief executive at the start of last year, according to Phil Payne, managing director of analyst company, Isham Research.
Computer Weekly Storage Feature - Opinion - 27 February 2003
It seems inevitable that Linux because of its low cost, scalability - especially downwards - and security will become dominant in future generations of storage products. It will bring all the advantages of the Linux world with it, including some surprises. So sorely needed data virtualisation functionality may arrive sooner than was previously thought, and it will certainly be more affordable.
Phil Payne is managing director of Isham Research and one of the UK's most respected analysts for storage and enterprise systems
Payne, den "Computerwire" als wohl besten Kenner der Mainframe-Szene einschätzt, weiß offenbar schon einiges mehr.
Computerwire/Computergram/Yahoo, USA/UK (original page no longer available)
Payne has a lot more to say about the machines, and is perhaps the best motorhead in the mainframe market.
(Payne's report, which is available at http://www.isham-research.co.uk/galileo.html, is a very funny and interesting read, and he's even funnier on the phone.)
Sowohl Steven Milunovich von Merrill Lynch als auch Phil Payne von Isham Research berichten übereinstimmend, dass IBM in absehbarer Zeit erstmals wieder neue Highend-Mainframes ankündigen wird.
(So I did - but where did the last paragraph come from?)
T-Rex is indeed a curious name, given IBM's detractors' fondness for describing mainframes as computing dinosaurs heading for extinction. Here are some observations from Mr. Payne:´
T-Rex is not only an extinct egg-laying lizard with most of its brains in its butt, but it's also confusingly the code name used by NEC for a 64-bit MIPS processor. G8 was originally named after Galileo - a genius who stood up against fashion and changed the way the world thought - the kind of help mainframes could do with at present.
But Phil Payne, managing director of isham research, warned: "Moving from a five MIPS machine to a 40 MIPS one will involve a huge increase in software costs. IBM has said that users won't have to pay the higher software charges for four years, but 60 per cent of the software bill comes from third party ISVs, which will say 'you've got a 40 MIPS machine now' and charge accordingly."
These Linux mainframes "are too powerful for most of the users being orphaned this year," said Payne. "The moratorium on higher software charges applies only to IBM software and is limited to 48 months - enough time perhaps to get off the platform. These IBM customers need a system of appropriate size -- even if given as a gift, a larger system can bankrupt a small company with its software costs."
IBM reaches out to smaller users with new mainframe - Computerworld
Even so, the prospect of shelling out more money for third-party software is going to keep many users with small mainframe workloads right where they are, said Phil Payne, president of Isham Research in Cambridgeshire, England. "A vast majority of these users are in a relatively ossified situation," Payne said. "They haven't been able to grow for such a long time, they are stuck in old [third-party] software pricing groups" that make it too expensive for them to upgrade.
Analyst Phil Payne of Isham Research saw the addition of Linux as a strategic move. "On IBM's mainframe systems Unix has been deprecated in favour of Linux and the same is happening here.
"There is no particular business need for 64bit Linux [yet]. But I see Linux accelerating away from proprietary operating systems over the next two to three years," he said.
The Register, 26 March 2002
(Our thanks to Phil Payne, of isham research for alerting us to this.)
Apparently, that doesn't mean the zSeries makes all the old 24 and 31-bit stuff obsolete. Phil Payne of Euro-based research outfit isham research added that even though IBM's zSeries products are 64-bit, that doesn't prevent them from running legacy subsystems and applications that rely on the older 31- and 24-bit addressing modes.
http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/os/mainframeos/story/0,10801,76517,00.html
"Had IBM's License Manager been available on plan, users could have been coerced into using it as a prerequisite to Workload Level Charges," said Phil Payne, president of isham research in Great Stukeley, England. But IBM's delay in shipping ILM may have cost it that leverage, Payne said.
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"For the majority of users, the Sub-Capacity Reporting Tool is proving perfectly adequate," Payne said. "Adopting the license manager would bring no fiscal advantage, and mainframe users who are asked to jump through hoops need a business case to do so."
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/53/24113.html
Phil Payne, of isham research, has had a good look at the performance of the new medium-sized zSeries mainframe (formerly codenamed Raptor), which he reckons offers a base processor speed around 185 MIPS, yielding perhaps 80 to 625 or so MIPS across the range in production.
http://www.vnunet.com/News/1129320, also Computing 21 February 2002, page 11.
According to Payne, the most significant part of the announcement is the new zOS.e operating system.
"They've taken the traditional zOS, removed the support for legacy applications and cut the price by 90 per cent," Payne explained.
"What you're left with is an operating system that supports new applications, is bomb-proof, and doesn't cost a great deal."
Payne explained that the robustness of the new operating system will be particularly appealing to new customers in a climate when security is at the top of many organisation's lists of priorities.
Computer Weekly, 21 February 2002, page 10:
Phil Payne, an analyst at isham research, said, "Some time ago people were not aware that software pricing was a hidden cost, but Microsoft has given users a wake-up call."
Payne believes IBM could even face a stampede from users desperate to get some of the renowned security of the existing z/OS operating system at a reduced price. "IBM may have underestimated the demand for z/OS.e. Awareness of security has never been greater in this industry."
Silicon.com, 18 February 2002:
Phil Payne, an analyst and close IBM observer, said IBM might just have underestimated the potential for sales. He said: "IBM is in for a surprise. It has hit the curve exactly right."
Payne argued that the real pulling power of the z800 will be in the operating system. The z/OS.e software comes at a ninth of the price of its full version equivalent. Payne calls it "the biggest thing IBM's done since the 70s."
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/archive/15478.html
Phil Payne, of independent analysts isham research, said the main enhancement of the zSeries over S/390 is the move from 31-bit to 64-bit addressing space. He explained that a 31-bit system did not provide a wide-enough addressing space to run the largest database systems efficiently.
http://www.computeractive.co.uk/News/1113866
Phil Payne, an analyst at Isham Research, said that IBM has previously only offered this technology on an individual deal basis. "It is easier and cheaper for IBM to make it standard," he said. "Capacity is cheap where support and shipping is expensive, so capacity-on-demand should reduce costs."
http://www.vnunet.com/News/1108277
Phil Payne, an independent consultant at Isham Research, said the number of platforms IBM is supporting is getting out of control prompting it to decide which product lines its future investment programme will focus on. "IBM has a vision that all its proprietary platforms should share the same technology. In the long term, it wants convergence," he said.
More stuff from VNUNET ..
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/story/0,,t269-s2072079,00.html - sadly now deleted
Phil Payne, principal director at analyst Isham Research said IBM has stolen the march on ICL in terms of becoming a service-based company: "ICL seem to be one of the slower companies moving into Web-based services." He added ICL is unlikely to float on the stock market, and has made this claim a number of times in the past. [27 May 1999]
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/story/0,,t269-s2071420,00.html - sadly now deleted
Payne, managing director of Isham Research, said the AS/400E 12-way server is mainframe class. He criticised the inflexibility of pricing for the S/390, with IBM and software vendors charging for power rather than per user. "The S/390 is exposed by the ferocity of its software charges. There is no fair way to charge for a five-user application on a 1000Mips machine."
http://www.emc2.it/local/it/IT/news/1998/prodotti/011998.jsp - sadly now deleted.
Nelle situazioni in cui la disponibilità dei dati ha un'importanza vitale per l'espletamento delle funzioni di business, le soluzioni di business continuance sono quindi indispensabili. Come sottolineato da Phil Payne, analista di Isham Research "SRDF, in breve tempo, ha conquistato una posizione di leadership assoluta nell'ambito delle soluzioni di protezione dei dati in ambienti complessi. Nessun altro fornitore può vantare una soluzione multipiattaforma così completa".
http://www.computable.nl/artikels/archief0/d33jb006.htm
Consultant Phil Payne van analistenfirma Isham Research meent dat IBM nu vaststelt op welke gebieden het zich zal concentreren. "Het heeft de visie dat al zijn bedrijfseigen platformen dezelfde onderliggende technologie moeten delen. Op de lange termijn wil IBM convergentie."
The Dweebspeak Primer, April 1995:
But Canopus is more than just Will Zachmann. More too than his wonderful crew of sysops (Bruce Bierman, John Oellrich, and Ben Sano) who slave to keep the threads in order and the flames to a simmer. Bruce works for Microsoft, John for AT&T. This is not just a place for OS/2 fanatics, Canopus has both Work Place Shills and Microsoft Munchkins, but there are more fans of OS/2 there than you normally find elsewhere. It's the in place to be, and to be seen. To meet neat, keen people like Steven Durrett, a retired lawyer who maintains a history of almost every message posted. Or Phil Payne, the London-based industry expert for Sievers Consulting, who presents documented facts of the most interesting kind when all about him are posting rumors or misinformation.
And the first front page of them all - Computing, 25 June 1987:
"We have noticed a big increase in the number of closed door briefings IBM is giving customers about product plans. A certain amount of such briefing is acceptable, but not if it becomes a competitive weapon against plug compatible manufacturers," said Payne.
isham research Home Page and Contact Information
Contact Phil Payne by email or use mobile/SMS 07833 654800
